An Analytical Report on “ISC COVID-19 Visualizer” in the World and in Iran in the Last 10 Days between May 21-30, 2020

World and Iran Average Daily Growth Rates Hit 2% and 1.8%Respectively
31 May 2020 | 00:00 Code : 1374 News Important News
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According to the information extracted from ISC COVID-19 Visualizer (https://maps.isc.gov.ir/covid19/#/world), the average daily growth rate of people infected with COVID-19 virus in the world has increased from 1.78 % (May 10 to 20, 2020) to 2.04 % (May 21 to 30, 2020).  Besides, during the same time space, the rate in Iran boosted from 1.48 % to 1.8 %. However the reason for increase in number of reported infected cases with Corona Virus was announced to be due to more tests by people with no symptoms of COVID-19 or with minor symptoms, decrease of Recovery Index (the ratio of the average daily growth of recovery rate to the average daily growth of disease spread rate) in Iran from 2.12 % (April 20 to 29, 2020) to 0.94 % (May 21 to 30, 2020) indicates that we are far from the end of the disease in Iran. The trend of the disease during the last month is definitely alarming and serious preventive actions must be taken.

As table 2 shows, there is a remarkable reduction in average daily growth of death rate in the world from 3.29 % (April 20 to 29, 2020) to 1.29 % (May 21 to 30, 2020). During these two periods, there was also decrease in average daily growth of death rate in Iran from 1.53 % to 0.84 %.

Table 1 includes the statistics in ISC COVID-19 Visualizer on 18 major countries with higher rates of confirmed infection, the average daily growth rate in different periods, the percentage of the recovery rate, and the percentage of death rate. In Table 1, the information taken from ISC COVID-19 Visualizer reveals that from May 21 to May 30, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19-Visualizer went up from 4,982,937 to 6,094,621. Accordingly, the average daily growth rate of infection was 2.04 % between May 21-30 which was 1.78 % (May 10 to 20, 2020) and 2.65 % (April 30 to May 9, 2020). Therefore, an increase is observed in the average daily growth rate during May 21-30. Studies show that from May 21 to 30, the average recovered population in the world has elevated to 44.33 % and the average death rate has reached 6.06 %.

Among 18 major studied countries, China had the highest rate of recovered population (94.35 %). Germany (90 %), Iran (78.4 %), Turkey (77.9 %), Mexico and Saudi Arabia (70 %), Spain (69 %), Italy (67 %), and Canada (53 %) ranked second to nineth respectively. The rate of recovered population remained below 50 % in other countries.

 

Table 1: Analytical Statistics of ISC COVID-19 Visualizer, May 31, 2020

 

Death Rate (Percent)  

 (Total)

Recovery Rate (Percent)  

 (Total)

Average Daily Growth Rate (Percent)  

May 21 to 30, 2020

Average Daily Growth Rate (Percent)  

May 10 to 20, 2020

Average Daily Growth

Rate (Percent)  

April 30 to May 9, 2020

Average Daily Growth Rate (Percent)  

April 20 to 29, 2020

Statistics on  May 30, 2020

Statistics on  May 20, 2020

Country

6.06

44.33

2.04

1.78

2.65

2.96

6,094,621

4,982,937

World

5.82

28.97

1.41

1.4

2.55

3.38

1806071

1570583

United States of America

5.97

41.15

5.12

5.77

7.45

7.46

469510

285087

Brazil

1.15

42.23

2.84

3.65

7.76

8.78

396575

299941

Russia

9.48

68.8

0.27

0.53

1.12

1.78

286308

278803

Spain

14.07

NIL

0.93

1.28

2.87

3.25

272826

248818

United  Kingdom

14.33

66.9

0.27

0.35

0.74

1.3

232664

226699

Italy

15.26

36.2

0.43

0.22

0.62

0.86

188625

180809

France

4.7

90.04

0.3

0.35

0.63

1.04

183149

177827

Germany

2.86

47.83

5.5

4.72

6.78

7.07

181796

106475

India

2.77

77.86

0.74

0.9

1.67

3.15

163103

151615

Turkey

5.2

78.44

1.81

1.48

1.4

1.32

148950

124603

Iran

2.81

42.69

4.58

3.99

7.09

8.07

155671

99483

Peru

1.06

42.63

6.71

6.18

6.23

4

94858

49579

Chile

7.85

53.36

1.32

1.4

2.61

4.27

90161

79112

Canada

11.56

70.44

5.07

8

6.52

4.44

84627

51633

Mexico

0.58

70.62

2.92

8.1

5.55

4.83

83384

62545

Saudi Arabia

5.59

94.35

0.01

0

0.01

0.01

82999

82960

China

2.1

36.32

3.78

6.4

6.3

4.23

66457

45898

Pakistan

 

France had the highest death rate (15.3 %) among the 18 studied countries. Italy and United Kingdom (14 %), Mexico (11.6 %), Spain (9.5 %), Canada (7.8 %), Brazil (6 %), United States of America (5.8 %), China (5.6 %), Iran (5.2 %), and Germany (4.7 %) went next. Average death rate in other countries did not exceed 3 %. It is worth noting that the average death rate in the world has been 6 % so far.

Table 2 shows the average daily growth rate, the average recovery rate, and the average death rate in some countries during the last month. Comparing these indicators reveals the trend of disease spread and disease control. As the following table presents, the average daily growth rate of disease spread between May 21-30, 2020 in the world was 2.04 %, the average daily growth of recovery rate was 3.11 %, and the average daily growth of death rate was 1.29 %. The statistics reveal a decrease in the average daily growth of recovery rate and death rate in the world and in all these countries. Specifically, the average daily growth of death rate and recovery rate from April 20 to April 29, 2020 was 5.06 % and 3.29 % respectively which reduced to 3.11 % and 1.29 % during the last ten days of May. In Iran, the reduction in average daily growth of death rate and recovery rate changed from 2.8 % and 1.53 % to 1.69 % and 0.84 % respectively.

Higher the average daily recovery rate and lower average daily spread rate indicate success in disease control. Furthermore, the ratio of the average daily growth of recovery rate to the average daily growth of disease spread rate gives a fixed number called Recovery Index (RI) which can be taken as a measure to control the disease and prevent its spread. If RI in a country is smaller than 1, it means the average growth of recovery rate is less than the average growth of disease spread rate which implies that the disease stays longer in that country. On the contrary, if RI in a country is larger than 1, there is more hope to control the disease spread in a shorter time. RI of the world has been 1.52 for the last ten days. This index has been 7.52, 2.89, 2.62, 2.37, 1.93, 1.78, 1, and 0.94 for Italy, Russia, United States of America, France, Germany, Turkey, China, and Iran respectively. As can be noted, Iran with RI of 0.94 has been in the worst position among the studied countries during the last ten days of May. If this continues, there will be a long way to control COVID-19 and prevent its spread in the country. It can be noted that RI was 2.12 in Iran from April 20 to April 29 which was the best reported record from March 20, 2020.

 

Table 2. The Average Daily Growth of Disease Spread Rate, Recovery Rate, and Death Rate in the Last Month in Ten-day Periods of Time (May 31, 2020)

 

 

April 20 to 29, 2020  (Percent)

April 30 to May 9, 2020 (Percent)

May 10 to 20, 2020 (Percent)

May 21 to 30, 2020 (Percent)

Recovery Index in Late May

World

Confirmed

2.96

2.65

1.78

2.04

1.52

Recovered

5.06

3.97

2.94

3.11

Deaths

3.29

2.21

1.36

1.29

United States of America

Confirmed

3.38

2.55

1.4

1.41

2.62

Recovered

7.59

5.69

3.58

3.69

Deaths

4.28

2.74

1.48

1.17

Russia

Confirmed

8.78

7.76

3.65

2.84

2.89

Recovered

13.45

11.44

8.3

8.21

Deaths

10.42

7.02

4.01

4.85

Italy

Confirmed

1.3

0.74

0.35

0.27

7.52

Recovered

0

8.38

1.93

2.03

Deaths

1.59

1

0.52

0.36

Iran

Confirmed

1.32

1.4

1.48

1.81

0.94

Recovered

2.8

1.39

1.39

1.69

Deaths

1.53

1.1

0.7

0.84

Turkey

Confirmed

3.15

1.67

0.9

0.74

1.78

Recovered

0

22.71

1.88

1.31

Deaths

4.33

2.09

1.05

0.73

France

Confirmed

0.86

0.62

0.22

0.43

2.37

Recovered

2.81

1.55

0.94

1.02

Deaths

2.03

0.92

0.61

0.27

Germany

Confirmed

1.04

0.63

0.35

0.3

1.93

Recovered

3.45

1.58

0.76

0.58

Deaths

3.38

1.59

0.8

0.49

China

Confirmed

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

1

Recovered

0.07

0.07

0.02

0.01

Deaths

0.01

0

0.01

0

 

The following chart shows the trend of disease spread by averaging the statistics in ten-day periods of time during the last two months in Iran and in the world. As the chart presents, there has been a constant reductive trend for disease spread during the last two months in the world. Despite the reductive trend for the daily growth of disease spread from March 20 to April 19, 2020, it stopped to decrease from May 4, 2020 and started to take an increasing trend in Iran. The following information reveals that the reductive trend for the average daily growth has been 7.5 % (March 20 to 29, 2020), 5.37 % (March 30 to April 8, 2020), and 2.45 % (April 9 to 19, 2020). This proper trend continued from April 20 to 29, 2020 in such a way that during this period of time, it reached the minimum average daily growth rate, i.e. 1.32 %. From April 30 to May 9 there was a slight increase in the average daily growth rate (1.4 %) which reached 1.48 % and 1.8 % in the next ten-day periods of time (May 10 to 20 and May 21 to 30 respectively).

An Analytical Report on “ISC COVID-19 Visualizer” in the World and in Iran in the Last 10 Days between May 21-30, 2020


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